International Crisis Group Report on Tunisia

by Kyle Almond | Tunis/Brussels | 28 Apr 2011



Popular Protests in North Africa and the Middle East (IV): Tunisia's Way, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines the origins of the revolution and the political and social situation in its aftermath. Despite a rocky period after President Ben Ali's departure, Tunisia has displayed remarkable ability to reach consensus on critical political issues. It has done so by ensuring that a wide variety of social and political forces have a voice. 


Tunisia's Way

To build on that encouraging start, Tunisia must first continue to find ways to address competing concerns: fear of a return to the past versus fear of a plunge into chaos. Secondly, dialogue must be deepened between the Islamist party, An-Nahda, and secular forces. Mutual mistrust still lingers. Women's groups in particular doubt the movement's sincerity and fear an erosion of women's rights. The Islamists still recall the brutal era of the 1990s when they were systematically suppressed by Ben Ali's regime.

"Tunisia is where it all began", says Robert Malley, Crisis Group's Middle East & North Africa Program Director. "It also is where the promise of a successful democratic transition is greatest. For the region and the rest of the world, that should provide ample reason to pay attention and help Tunisians pursue their path".

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Tunisia is where it all began. It also is, by virtually every measure, where the promise of a successful democratic transition is greatest. The reasons are many, but the most significant lies in the country's history of political activism and social mobilisation involving a wide array of forces that decades of regime repression never fully stifled. This tradition served the nation well during the uprising, as workers, the unemployed, lawyers and members of the middle class coalesced in a broad movement. It will have to serve the nation well today as it confronts critical challenges: balancing the urge for radical political change against the need for stability; finding a way to integrate Islamism into the new landscape; and tackling the deep socio-economic problems that sparked the political revolution but which the political revolution in itself cannot address.

Meanwhile, the regime's bases of support shrivelled in dramatic fashion. In his hour of greatest need, Ben Ali was basically alone. Over time, what had been virtually a one-party state come to resemble the First Family's private preserve. Economic resources once shared among the elite increasingly were monopolised by the president and his wife, Leyla Trabelsi, while the private sector paid a hefty price. The ruling party, the Rassemblement constitutionnel démocratique (RCD), no longer served as a source of patronage; tellingly, it was unable to organise a single pro-regime demonstration despite repeated calls by the president's entourage. The president likewise kept the army both under-resourced and at arms' length; what loyalty it displayed was to the state, not the regime.

A second challenge is to integrate Islamists into the revamped political system. Tunisia starts with a not inconsiderable advantage. An-Nahda - its principal Islamist movement - stands out among many of its Arab counterparts by virtue of its pragmatism, efforts to reach out to other political forces and sophisticated intellectual outlook. Some secular parties, too, have sought, over the years, to build bridges with it. An-Nahda took a back seat during the uprising and subsequently has sought to reassure. But mutual mistrust lingers. Women's groups in particular doubt its sincerity and fear an erosion of gender rights. The Islamists recall the 1990s when the Ben Ali regime systematically suppressed them.
 From CSID (Center for the Study of Islam and Development)
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